Disclaimer:
Â
The picks and strategies mentioned in this article are solely the opinions of the author, based on their analysis and understanding of Formula 1 fantasy. These suggestions are provided for informational purposes only and do not guarantee success in any fantasy league or betting activity. The author does not take any responsibility for the outcomes of using these suggestions, and individuals are encouraged to make their own decisions based on their research and analysis. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
After the Australian GP, I was reminded of two important lessons. Firstly, never underestimate a determined Spaniard, particularly when their backs are up against the wall. Watching Fernando Alonso over the years has taught me that just when you think they're down, they'll surprise you with a performance worth celebrating. Carlos Sainz displayed shades of this same resilience in Melbourne. Despite concerns about his fitness following appendicitis, he secured a front-row start and ultimately clinched victory. While some may argue that his win was partly due to Max Verstappen's DNF, Ferrari's pace suggested they were strong contenders regardless.
Secondly, Melbourne revealed that Red Bull, despite their recent dominance, are not infallible. Verstappen's retirement and Sergio Perez's struggles with a stray tearoff underscored that even top teams can have off days. However, as we head to Japan, Red Bull will be eager to bounce back, especially given that Suzuka is owned by their engine partner, Honda, and is also a home race for the team in a way.
Â
Speaking of Suzuka, it's a much-loved circuit known for its mix of medium and high-speed corners. This demands both high downforce to navigate the corners and careful tyre management due to the forces exerted. Interestingly, the race is scheduled earlier than usual, so cooler temperatures could aid in tyre preservation and could also open up a variety of tyre strategies.
Â
NOTE - The driver and team valuations have changed since the Australian GP and are more reflective of the current pecking order. Therefore, choose your teams wisely based on the latest developments.
Prime Picks
Â
Max Verstappen -Â It's a no-brainer. Verstappen, the reigning champion and the man to beat, has dominated Suzuka recently, winning the last two races here. Since joining Red Bull, Verstappen has always made it to the podium at Suzuka whenever he's finished the race, with just one DNF in 2019. And with Red Bull's consistently strong performance at most tracks, he's a prime candidate for the top spot once again.
Carlos Sainz -Â In red-hot form, Sainz is on a mission. With two podiums in as many race appearances and the added motivation of proving himself after being let go by Ferrari for 2025, he's a force to be reckoned with. And even an appendicitis couldn't slow him down.
Â
McLaren -Â McLaren has been on fire at medium and high-speed circuits, as seen in Saudi Arabia and Australia most recently. Their car seems tailor-made for Japan's characteristics, evidenced by their double podium in the last race here. Oscar Piastri also made his mark with his maiden front row start and podium in F1. They're a team you'd want in your lineup without a second thought.
Safe Bets
Â
Yuki Tsunoda - Keep an eye on Tsunoda. He's been a standout in the midfield so far, with a solid P7 finish in Australia, his best result in two years. While he hasn't scored at home yet, racing in front of his home crowd could provide the extra push needed for a points finish. The home advantage and fan support often translates to a significant performance boost.
Â
Nico Hulkenberg - Looking for a steady option to balance out your team? Hulkenberg is your guy. He's scored points in the last two races, and Haas seems to be getting their strategy right this year. Ride the wave of his consistency while it lasts.
Aston Martin -Â Once a front-runner, Aston Martin now finds itself firmly in the midfield. While they may not be winning races, they've scored points in all three races so far. Consider them if you need a budget-friendly option to balance out your lineup.
Riskier Choices
Â
Mercedes -Â Proceed with caution with Mercedes. Their car's performance seems to be a mystery even to them, operating within a very narrow window. While a double DNF like last week is unlikely, their unpredictability makes them a risky pick. However, if things click for them, they could still fetch you some points.
Williams - Williams is a team to approach with caution, especially given their poor track record in Japan. Albon has struggled since joining Williams, failing to reach Q3 or finish a race in Japan, completing just 26 laps in the last two races. Sargeant also had a tough debut in Japan, crashing in qualifying and retiring from the race. With the added pressure of no spare chassis once again, it's wise to steer clear of them for now.
Team Options
Option 1 - Max Verstappen (40 mil) + Valtteri Bottas (25 mil) + McLaren (35 mil)
Budget left -Â 0 mil
Option 2 - Carlos Sainz (36 mil) + Lance Stroll (29 mil) + McLaren (35 mil)
Budget left -Â 0 mil
Option 3 - Max Verstappen (40 mil) + Oscar Piastri (34 mil) + Kick Sauber (26 mil)
Budget left -Â 0 mil
Stats and Facts -
In the last 15 years, no driver has won from outside the top three starting positions on the grid.
Since 2013, every Japanese GP has seen a team achieve a double podium finish.
The last fourteen Japanese GPs have featured at least one current or former champion on the podium. Notably, the 2011 podium included three champions - Alonso, Jenson Button, and Sebastian Vettel.
No team apart from the 'Big-3' (Ferrari, Mercedes, Red Bull) has secured pole position in Japan since 2009.
Verstappen has secured pole position in each of the last four races. If he takes pole again this weekend, he will equal the longest pole streak of his career from 2023.
Sergio Perez has not started from the front row since the summer break last year. His last front-row start was in Belgium, where he started from second on the grid.
Hamilton has consistently always finished in the top five at this circuit during the hybrid era.
Only three Ferrari drivers have ever won in Japan - Gerhard Berger, Michael Schumacher, and Rubens Barrichello. Their most recent win came in 2004, meaning Ferrari has not claimed victory in Japan for 20 years.
If Ferrari records another one-two result this weekend, it will be the first time in 16 years (Bahrain-Spain 2008) that they have taken one-twos in consecutive races.
Carlos Sainz has never finished in the top-four in Japan.
Yuki made it to Q3 in the last Japanese GP but has yet to score at home. If he does, he'll become the first Japanese driver since Kamui Kobayashi to score at a home race.
Â
F1 StatsGuru, also known as Sundaram Ramaswami, is a motorsport statistician and digital content creator. He runs the largest stats-based community on the internet and provides statistics to leading media houses in motorsport such as The Race, Motorsport, and Autosport. His stats have been featured on global broadcasts by David Croft, Will Buxton, and others. Despite his professional background in telecom engineering, his love for statistics developed over a decade of playing cricket fantasy with friends and colleagues. He is also currently a part of the WTF1 talent roster.