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FANTASY PRIXVIEW - 2024 EMILIA ROMAGNA GP

Writer's picture: Sundaram RamaswamiSundaram Ramaswami

Disclaimer:

 

The picks and strategies mentioned in this article are solely the opinions of the author, based on their analysis and understanding of Formula 1 fantasy. These suggestions are provided for informational purposes only and do not guarantee success in any fantasy league or betting activity. The author does not take any responsibility for the outcomes of using these suggestions, and individuals are encouraged to make their own decisions based on their research and analysis. Past performance is not indicative of future results.


Lando Norris has arrived and how. Over the past year, he and McLaren have been consistently challenging Red Bull, taking podium finishes one after the other. Finally, that elusive win is in the bag. This victory must come as a huge relief to the team, who have patiently awaited their return to the front with competitive pace. Their performance in Miami showcased McLaren's genuine superiority over the rest of the field, setting them up as strong contenders to challenge Red Bull in the upcoming races.

 

An early tip for your upcoming fantasy team - Exercise patience. The Imola race marks the start of the European leg, signaling a flurry of upgrades from teams. With races closer together, teams can introduce upgrades more frequently, which can lead to shifts in the standings as some upgrades may prove successful while others may not. McLaren's recent upgrades greatly benefited Norris, and Oscar Piastri is expected to receive the remaining 50% of new upgrades this weekend. Ferrari has been teasing significant upgrades that could challenge Red Bull, rumoured to provide a 0.3-0.4s advantage. While signs suggest a potential battle among Red Bull, McLaren, and Ferrari this weekend, it's wise to wait for sufficient positive signs before making changes to your fantasy team. With more time available for adjustments and finding the right setup balance, teams will have the opportunity to refine their strategies, making it crucial to wait for clear indicators of performance.

 

Imola stands out as a classic circuit, characterized by its fast, flowing, and narrow layout. This narrowness significantly reduces overtaking opportunities, meaning the top-three teams are likely to dominate and secure the majority of points. However, the track's narrow nature could lead to exciting action in the opening laps and increase the risk of a safety car intervention. In fact, the Virtual Safety Car (VSC) or Safety Car (SC) has been deployed in each of the last three races at Imola. Adding to the unpredictability, rain could further shake up the race.

 

Considering these factors, there isn't a clear favorite for this race. While this complexity might make fantasy team choices more challenging, it also presents an opportunity to take calculated risks and stand out.


NOTE - The driver and team valuations have changed recently and are more reflective of the current pecking order. Furthermore, there is a new rule in place - your turbo driver must have a valuation of less than 35 million. Therefore, choose your teams wisely based on the latest developments.


Solid Choices

 

Lando Norris - With his first win under his belt, I anticipate Norris will elevate his performance even further. Winning can have a transformative effect on athletes, both relaxing them after overcoming a hurdle and motivating them with newfound confidence. Norris appears to be driving at his peak, making him a dependable choice, especially with McLaren's upgrades performing well. Imola's flowing layout plays to McLaren's strengths, making either Norris or the McLaren team a highly recommended pick for your fantasy team.

 

Red Bull - While both drivers are meeting expectations, there are slight vulnerabilities showing. These issues have mainly surfaced around Sprint weekends, where teams have limited time to set up their cars effectively. However, since we’re back to the regular three practice sessions this weekend, I expect Red Bull to quickly regain their usual form. Additionally, Max Verstappen is closing in on a significant pole position record, so I don’t expect him or Red Bull to let it pass. While the drivers might be costly, selecting Red Bull as your constructor remains a solid choice.

 

Charles Leclerc - While Carlos Sainz initially stole the spotlight, Charles Leclerc has quietly been delivering consistent performances, qualifying well and racking up points regularly. He's the only driver to finish in the top-four in every race so far, with strong front-row starts making him a reliable qualifier. If Ferrari's upgrades pay off, Leclerc could shine not just on Saturdays but also on Sundays, making his performance crucial for Ferrari.

 

Nico Hulkenberg & Yuki Tsunoda - These two drivers are comparable in their performances this season. Hulkenberg has made three Q3 appearances, while Tsunoda has four. Both drivers have scored points in three races each, literally stealing it from cars having an off day, usually a Mercedes or an Aston Martin. Their ability to gather points despite their car's limitations makes either of them a solid choice for your fantasy team.


Riskier Picks

 

Kevin Magnussen - Currently on the brink of a race ban, Magnussen's recent performances have been marked by aggressive and hard defending, aiding teammate Hulkenberg in earning valuable points. While teamwork is crucial, Magnussen's future in the sport is uncertain. It's essential for him to have clean races, stay out of the stewards' bad books, and ideally earn points on merit. With just two points away from a race ban, it's unlikely that Magnussen will resort to risky tactics to stay within the points, so choose your fantasy team wisely.

 

Daniel Ricciardo - Since the rumored 'chassis switch,' Ricciardo has shown flashes of confidence in the last two Sprint weekends. While he presents a more budget-friendly option compared to Tsunoda (4 million cheaper), Tsunoda has been scoring the bulk of points. However, this could be Ricciardo's breakthrough weekend, making him a potentially good differential option.

 

Mercedes - Despite bringing some upgrades, Mercedes remains unpredictable, with weather and track conditions playing a significant role in their pace. George Russell appears to be the stronger driver, but his higher price tag reflects that. Therefore, it's advisable to wait and see how teams perform in practice sessions before making a decision.


Team Options


Option 1: Turbo - Oscar Piastri (33 mil) + Yuki Tsunoda (31 mil) + McLaren (36 mil) Budget left - 0 mil

Option 2: Lando Norris (36 mil) + Turbo - Daniel Ricciardo (27 mil) + Ferrari (37 mil) Budget left - 0 mil


Stats and facts -


1. A different driver has claimed pole at Imola in each of the last six races, a streak dating back to 2004.

2. The winner of the Emilia Romagna GP has always taken pole at the subsequent event - Lewis Hamilton won in 2020 and then took pole in 2021, while Verstappen won in 2021 and took pole along with the win in 2022.

3. No driver has won at Imola from a grid position outside the top five.

4. Red Bull and McLaren are the only teams that have not been eliminated in Q1 or Q2 this season.

5. The last three drivers before Lando Norris to win a race from Verstappen's pole position have not won another race since - Daniel Ricciardo in Monza 2021, Charles Leclerc in Austria 2022, and Carlos Sainz in Australia 2024.

6. Another pole position this weekend would mark Verstappen's eighth consecutive pole, extending his personal best streak and matching the record Ayrton Senna set 35 years ago between 1988-1989.

7. McLaren and Ferrari have completed 100% of all kilometres this season.

8. Leclerc has consistently started on even grid slots in the Grand Prix this season (P2, P2, P4, P8, P6, and P2), always on the dirtier side of the track, as pole and odd-numbered positions start on the racing line, which offers more grip.

9. Since the 2020 season, McLaren has secured more podiums in Italy than Ferrari themselves - 5 vs 2.

10. In the last 11 races, Lando Norris (65) has led the second-most laps after Verstappen (458).

11. Lewis Hamilton has not qualified higher than 7th this season.

12. Yuki Tsunoda has never qualified above 16th at Imola and has never progressed past Q1 here. He has climbed a total of 13 positions in his two races here.

13. Ricciardo has always made it to Q3 at Imola and has always started from the top three rows.


F1 StatsGuru, also known as Sundaram Ramaswami, is a motorsport statistician and digital content creator. He runs the largest stats-based community on the internet and provides statistics to leading media houses in motorsport such as The Race, Motorsport, and Autosport. His stats have been featured on global broadcasts by David Croft, Will Buxton, and others. Despite his professional background in telecom engineering, his love for statistics developed over a decade of playing cricket fantasy with friends and colleagues. He is also currently a part of the WTF1 talent roster.

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