FANTASY PRIXVIEW - 2024 CHINESE GP

Disclaimer:

The picks and strategies mentioned in this article are solely the opinions of the author, based on their analysis and understanding of Formula 1 fantasy. These suggestions are provided for informational purposes only and do not guarantee success in any fantasy league or betting activity. The author does not take any responsibility for the outcomes of using these suggestions, and individuals are encouraged to make their own decisions based on their research and analysis. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Business in Suzuka seemed to follow the usual script, with Max Verstappen and Red Bull dominating as expected. This track has always been a stronghold for Red Bull, making it a challenge for the rest of the field to keep up. Nonetheless, the other teams did their best to collect as many points as possible. Now, the focus shifts to China.

After a five-year absence, China returns to the calendar, and I couldn't be happier to see this track back. It's a track that offers both excitement and difficulty, with similarities to Bahrain. The circuit features medium to high tyre wear, slow corners that demand traction, and one of the longest straights in Formula 1. Teams that performed well in Bahrain might find success here, but with four races already completed, teams have been introducing upgrades and are more aware of their car's capabilities. This means that anything can happen.

However, there are a couple of concerns to address. With Shanghai off the calendar for five years, no team has recent track data to rely on. Additionally, these ground-effect cars have never raced at this circuit, making simulator work crucial for teams this weekend. Furthermore, with the format being a Sprint weekend, teams and drivers have just one hour to understand tyre degradation and other behaviors before finalizing their setups for the Sprint shootout and Sprint race. To add to the challenge, rain is forecasted for China, with overcast weather expected on Friday and Saturday. This unpredictable weather, coupled with the lack of recent track data, makes it anyone's game. The team that can get things right in the first 60 minutes will have an early advantage ahead of qualifying on Saturday.

NOTE - The driver and team valuations have changed since the Japanese GP and are more reflective of the current pecking order. Furthermore, there is a new rule in place - your turbo driver must have a valuation of less than 35 million. Therefore, choose your teams wisely based on the latest developments.

Prime Picks

Red Bull - Max Verstappen continues to be the standout choice, showing exceptional form (as always). Sergio Perez's recent strong performances, including three second-place finishes in four races, make him a solid alternative if Verstappen is too expensive for your liking. Red Bull's consistent performance and adaptability even during Sprint weekends make them a reliable choice.

Ferrari - Ferrari has shown the potential to challenge Red Bull, with Carlos Sainz leading the charge this season. Despite some recent qualifying challenges, Charles Leclerc remains a strong contender, and is tucked behind Perez in the standings. Both Ferrari drivers are now equally priced, making the choice between them difficult (or easy) for fantasy players.

Fernando Alonso - The latest rule affecting turbo drivers has limited the options for top teams like Red Bull, Ferrari, and half of McLaren. Maintaining a balanced team is wise, especially for a Sprint weekend where setup uncertainties can occur. Fernando Alonso has been a consistent performer and offers good value for his price, making him a solid pick.

Safe Bets

Yuki Tsunoda - I relied on him to perform in Japan, and he delivered. The reality is that the top five teams are incredibly close yet significantly faster than the bottom five, making it likely that they will claim most of the points. However, should any of those drivers falter, Tsunoda is the first to capitalize on the opportunity. He's poised to be on the cusp of points once more.

Nico Hülkenberg - Following Tsunoda, Hülkenberg stands out to me. While teams like Williams struggle with chassis issues, Kick Sauber with pit stop problems, and Alpine facing challenges across the board, Hülkenberg and Haas have been consistently maximizing their opportunities. He remains a dependable choice and a valuable asset to balance your team.

Riskier Choices

Mercedes - The team hailed Japan as a step in the right direction. While this might have been true in practice and qualifying, they seemed off the pace during the race. Until I witness more promising signs from Mercedes over the weekend, I'll reserve my judgment.

McLaren - McLaren typically performs well on high-speed, flowing tracks, which China is not. Even Team Principal Andrea Stella has acknowledged that Shanghai might not suit their car's strengths. This isn't to say they won't score points, as they might, but Aston Martin could potentially outperform them due to McLaren's struggles with high drag on longer straights.

Zhou Guanyu - Please don't criticize me for placing Guanyu in the 'risky' category. While selecting the local favorite often pays off, his recent performances suggest otherwise. Zhou Guanyu has qualified last in the past three races, and given Sauber's persistent pit stop issues, it's difficult to envision him scoring points anytime soon, despite my hopes. I'm not willing to take the risk this time. 

Team Options

Option 1 - Fernando Alonso (33 mil) + Yuki Tsunoda (30 mil) + Ferrari (37 mil)

Budget left - 0 mil

Option 2 - Yuki Tsunoda (30 mil) + Lance Stroll (29 mil) + Red Bull (40 mil)

Budget left - 1 mil

Stats and facts -

1. The last four Chinese GPs all had different pole-sitters - Nico Rosberg, Lewis Hamilton, Sebastian Vettel, and Valtteri Bottas.

2. Each of the last 15 pole positions has been taken by either Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc, or Carlos Sainz, while each of the last 22 races has been won by either Verstappen or Sainz.

3. Out of the 12 Sprints held, Max Verstappen has finished in the top-three in 11 of them, missing out only in São Paulo 2022 where he finished P4.

4. A pole position this weekend would mark Verstappen's sixth consecutive pole, setting a new personal record for his longest pole streak in his career.

5. Shanghai and Singapore are the only two venues on the 2024 Formula 1 calendar where Max Verstappen has yet to claim victory.

6. Ferrari has not secured a victory at the Shanghai circuit in the hybrid era. Their last win in China was by Fernando Alonso in 2013.

7. A Ferrari driver has stood on the podium in each of the last seven Chinese GPs, going back to 2013.

8. McLaren is the only team to have both drivers secure a Sprint Shootout pole last year (Qatar and Brazil 2023). They qualified in the top three in four of the six Sprints last season.

9.  McLaren has scored just once in China in the hybrid era, a P7 finish by Fernando Alonso in 2018.

 F1 StatsGuru, also known as Sundaram Ramaswami, is a motorsport statistician and digital content creator. He runs the largest stats-based community on the internet and provides statistics to leading media houses in motorsport such as The Race, Motorsport, and Autosport. His stats have been featured on global broadcasts by David Croft, Will Buxton, and others. Despite his professional background in telecom engineering, his love for statistics developed over a decade of playing cricket fantasy with friends and colleagues. He is also currently a part of the WTF1 talent roster.