Disclaimer:
The picks and strategies mentioned in this article are solely the opinions of the author, based on their analysis and understanding of Formula 1 fantasy. These suggestions are provided for informational purposes only and do not guarantee success in any fantasy league or betting activity. The author does not take any responsibility for the outcomes of using these suggestions, and individuals are encouraged to make their own decisions based on their research and analysis. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Red Bull's performance at Imola was anything but a bait-and-switch. Despite a lacklustre showing in Friday's practice sessions, the team was genuinely struggling. Yet, as champions do, they found a way to turn things around. Thanks to some brilliant simulator work by Sebastien Buemi, Red Bull provided Verstappen with a setup that worked for the weekend. It was just enough to secure pole position (also thanks to Nico Hulkenberg) and the win. Even with a challenging setup, Red Bull showed they have the pace and strategic acumen to outsmart their competitors.
Imola leaves us with more questions than answers. Can Red Bull resolve their setup issues from the past two weekends and come back stronger in Monaco? Can McLaren repeat their impressive performances and possibly secure pole position this time? Will Ferrari sort out their upgrade issues in time to mount a stronger challenge against Red Bull and McLaren? As always, the practice sessions will reveal a lot, and we'll have to wait and see how the teams fare.
Monaco presents a unique challenge due to its narrow street circuit, where form alone cannot dictate success. With a top speed of roughly 290 kph, teams will not reach the speeds seen at circuits like China, Miami, or Imola. The track demands high downforce, so teams are likely to introduce Monaco-specific upgrades, especially larger rear wings. Additionally, the track surface will be initially 'green' since no major sporting activities take place on these streets throughout the year.
Quickly getting the tyres up to temperature will be crucial, but the low speeds and low asphalt abrasion will make this challenging. Minimizing mistakes is also vital, as Monaco offers little room for error. One misstep and a driver's qualifying or race could be over.
Monaco is all about qualifying, so selecting the best drivers ahead of Saturday is key. A strong qualifying position is essential to convert it into a significant points haul on race day. Therefore, it's crucial to closely monitor the practice sessions before finalising your choices.
NOTE - The driver and team valuations have changed recently and are more reflective of the current pecking order. Furthermore, there is a new rule in place - your turbo driver must have a valuation of less than 35 million. Therefore, choose your teams wisely based on the latest developments.
Solid Choices
Oscar Piastri - Oscar Piastri is my top pick because of his impressive pace at Imola. If Verstappen hadn't received a tow from Hulkenberg, Piastri would likely have been the fastest in qualifying. This gives me the confidence that Piastri can deliver when the car is competitive and probably even edge out Lando Norris on the odd occasion. Who knows, he might even replicate last week’s showing and secure pole position in Monaco. And when he does so, he definitely has to be in my team as my turbo driver. So I’m taking a punt this time. However, McLaren is probably the best constructor choice overall right now, considering their recent strong form.
Red Bull - Max Verstappen does what he does best, crossing the finish line ahead of everyone else. However, overcoming setup challenges to provide Verstappen with a reliable car is crucial this time. Sergio Perez's struggles in the lower half of the points don't offer Verstappen the support he needs. Perez typically performs well on street circuits, making it essential for him to deliver a strong performance in Monaco. Given their current form and price, it's unlikely that many fantasy players are selecting either driver. Yet, if you can strike the right balance, they remain a good constructor choice.
Ferrari - This race holds special significance for Charles Leclerc, being his home event, which often brings out the best in drivers. Leclerc has secured pole position twice at this track, and if Leclerc can set aside his misfortunes and Ferrari can make their upgrades effective in Monaco's unique conditions, he could be a strong contender for pole position and a race victory. Carlos Sainz also boasts a solid record at this track, always finishing in the points here. Overall, Ferrari are just as good a constructor option as McLaren.
Steady Options
Yuki Tsunoda/Nico Hulkenberg - Both drivers have shown strong performances in recent races, but Monaco poses a different challenge. Neither driver has a stellar qualifying record at this circuit. Tsunoda has never scored here, while Hulkenberg's last points finish in Monaco was in 2018. As I mentioned earlier, it's wise to observe their pace in practice before making a decision.
Riskier Picks
Kevin Magnussen - Magnussen acknowledged in Imola the need to drive more cautiously to avoid scrutiny from race stewards. While he had a clean and solid race in Imola, his qualifying performances have been a concern. With his Monaco record not the best, it wouldn’t hurt to look past him this weekend.
Lance Stroll - In six races at Monaco, Lance Stroll has only scored points once and his qualifying results have also been underwhelming. Given the challenging nature of overtaking at Monaco, it's unlikely that Stroll will make many position gains during the race. So I’m steering clear of Stroll this time. Team Options Option 1: Turbo - Oscar Piastri (33 mil) + Yuki Tsunoda/Nico Hulkenberg (31 mil) + McLaren (36 mil) Budget left - 0 mil
Option 2: Turbo - Lewis Hamilton (33 mil) + Daniel Ricciardo (27 mil) + Ferrari (37 mil)
Budget left - 3 mil
Stats and facts -
1With limited overtaking opportunities on offer at Monaco, qualifying higher up becomes paramount for teams. Over 68% of all races have been won from the front row.
2The furthest back a driver has triumphed from at Monaco is 14th, by Olivier Panis in the unusual 1996 race where only three drivers finished. In the 26 years since, no driver has managed to win from a grid position lower than third.
Between 2014 and 2016, the Circuit de Monaco witnessed an average of 11.66 overtakes, which significantly dropped to an average of just 4.8 overtakes from 2017 onwards.
Max Verstappen has been on the front row for ten consecutive races now. His last non-front row start in a Grand Prix was in Mexico 2023.
Vertsappen has topped 12 of the last 13 qualifying segments for the Grand Prix. The sole exception was Q2 in Miami, where Charles Leclerc posted the fastest time.
Lewis Hamilton has failed to score on only one occasion in Monaco, in 2009. He has a 100% finish rate at Monaco.
In his six races at the Principality, Lance Stroll has managed to score points only once - P8 in 2021.
McLaren is the only team that has not been eliminated in Q1 or Q2 this season.
Carlos Sainz thrives on the challenge of racing around Monte Carlo. Sainz has never failed to advance to Q3 and has scored points in every race here. In fact, he has always finished in an even-numbered position here - P10, P8, P6, P10, P6, P2, P2, and most recently P8.
F1 StatsGuru, also known as Sundaram Ramaswami, is a motorsport statistician and digital content creator. He runs the largest stats-based community on the internet and provides statistics to leading media houses in motorsport such as The Race, Motorsport, and Autosport. His stats have been featured on global broadcasts by David Croft, Will Buxton, and others. Despite his professional background in telecom engineering, his love for statistics developed over a decade of playing cricket fantasy with friends and colleagues. He is also currently a part of the WTF1 talent roster.
Comments