Disclaimer:
The picks and strategies mentioned in this article are solely the opinions of the author, based on their analysis and understanding of Formula 1 fantasy. These suggestions are provided for informational purposes only and do not guarantee success in any fantasy league or betting activity. The author does not take any responsibility for the outcomes of using these suggestions, and individuals are encouraged to make their own decisions based on their research and analysis. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Yes, Charles Leclerc FINALLY conquered Monaco, and every tifosi must have let out a huge sigh of relief as he crossed the finish line. This victory not only ended the dreadful Monaco curse for the local hero but also signaled Ferrari's resurgence alongside McLaren. And now, it's clear that Red Bull won't have an easy summer like last year. So what's the buzz on the street? No one knows who the favourite is this weekend, and there are two main reasons for this uncertainty. First, Red Bull appears to be on the backfoot for a change, largely due to their suspension design struggling with certain kerbs. While the sweeping corners with low kerbs, like those at the Red Bull Ring, suit their car well, higher kerbs, like those at Imola and Monaco, create problems for them. This could be a similar challenge in Canada, where the final chicane requires precise kerb handling. If the kerbs are too bumpy, Red Bull risks either slowing down significantly or crashing into the Wall of Champions. Right now, their biggest adversary seems to be the kerbs, not Ferrari or McLaren.
The second reason for unpredictability is the weather. Forecasts indicate a high chance of rain during practice and qualifying, complicating the setup process. Rain usually tends to emphasize driver skill over sheer speed, making grip crucial, especially in medium-slow speed corners that demand a lot of traction. Although less rain is expected on Sunday, the entire weekend promises excitement. Stay tuned and listen closely to the teams and commentators, as the pecking order this week could be anything but normal.
Solid Choices
Ferrari - In my opinion, Ferrari holds a slight advantage over McLaren, albeit marginally, given the current conditions. Both of their drivers have secured victories this season, making them the only team to do so. Leclerc, fresh off a home win, is the only driver to finish in the top four in every race this season. So expect him to enter the Canadian paddock relaxed but brimming with confidence.
McLaren - Oscar Piastri is an obvious choice at this point, with his stock soaring both on-track and on the Grid Master app. This rise means he's no longer eligible as a Turbo driver, making team selection even more challenging but also more exciting in terms of competition. McLaren hasn't scored in Canada since 2014, and Montreal is the only circuit where Norris has driven at least thrice without scoring points. But I suggest looking beyond history for this one. If there's a team with a near-perfect package right now, it's either Ferrari or McLaren, so these are your best Constructor and Driver options.
Steady Options
Red Bull - It's surprising to see Red Bull listed as a 'Steady' option, isn't it? Their suspension issues and a few rough outings for Checo Perez have contributed to this situation. They’ve had two weeks since the last race to regroup and strategize, aware of their limitations. However, expect Max Verstappen to still be at his best, especially in the rain. They'll be in the fight for pole and possibly the win, but they might be a bit too costly at this moment.
Yuki Tsunoda/Nico Hulkenberg - With none of the top-six drivers in the standings eligible to be picked as a Turbo driver, Yuki Tsunoda or Nico Hulkenberg could be good options.These two drivers are bridging the gap between the upper and lower tiers with multiple Q3 appearances and points finishes. Tsunoda, in particular, has been one of the standout performers this season.
Lewis Hamilton - Let's go by the numbers. Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton might not have the pace, but if there's a track where Hamilton feels at home, it's Montreal. The venue of his first win, Hamilton has won here an impressive seven times. He’s never qualified lower than fifth and has always finished on the podium, except once in 2018, making him a potential turbo driver option. It's one of his favorite tracks, which could help him eke out that extra tenth or two.
Esteban Ocon - A driver with a lot to prove. Rumors suggested he might be forced to skip the Canada race as 'punishment' for his ambitious move on teammate Pierre Gasly, which resulted in a collision and Ocon's retirement. However, he's out to make a statement now that he's announced he'll be leaving Alpine at the end of the year. His numbers at Montreal are solid. He’s always made it to Q3 and consistently scored points, often outperforming his teammate. Keep an eye on him. Riskier Picks
Aston Martin - How fortunes have shifted for this team, with development clearly being their Achilles' heel. Fernando Alonso hasn't scored in the last two races, and for a change, it looks like Lance Stroll is doing the heavy lifting. While they might not challenge the front runners or even Mercedes, you might want to consider Lance Stroll. It's his home race, and he's scored in four out of his five races here.
Team Options
Option 1: Turbo - Esteban Ocon (25 mil) + Charles Leclerc (37 mil) + Ferrari (38 mil) Budget left - 0 mil
Option 2: Turbo - Lewis Hamilton (33 mil) + Lance Stroll (27 mil) + Ferrari (38 mil)
Budget left - 2 mil
Option 3:
Turbo - Alex Albon (26 mil) + Lando Norris (37 mil) + McLaren (37 mil)
Budget left - 0 mil
Stats and facts -
Since 2006, all races here have been won from the front row, except for 2011 (P7) and 2014 (P6).
Six of the last seven Canadian Grands Prix have been won from pole position.
This track has seen an average of 24 overtakes per race since 2017 and about 75% of all overtakes here occur in the three DRS zones.
The last 15 pole positions have been taken either by Max Verstappen or Charles Leclerc.
Sergio Perez has made it to Q3 only three times in ten appearances and has never qualified higher than 8th in Canada. He has scored points only once in his last four Canadian GPs.
McLaren have scored more wins in Canada (13) than any other team in Formula. However, they haven’t secured any points in Canada since 2014.
McLaren is the only team that has not been eliminated in Q1 or Q2 this season.
Charles Leclerc has scored points on every visit he has made to Canada so far in his F1 career. However, he has only once made it to Q3 in Canada, in 2019.
Leclerc has also qualified in the top-two in each of the last four races in North America.
Lance Stroll has scored points in four Canadian GP races, matching Gilles Villeneuve as the only Canadians to have scored in four occasions at their home race.
This is one of Lewis Hamilton’s better tracks, having started from the top-five every single time. He has stood on the podium whenever he has finished here, except once (P5 in 2018).
A Mercedes-powered car has featured on the podium in every Canadian GP since 2010, and Mercedes as a team has stood on the podium in every Canadian GP since 2013.
Esteban Ocon has maintained a perfect scoring streak at the Canadian GP, scoring points in every race he has competed in at this circuit and also has a 100% Q3 record.
Kevin Magnussen's last points-scoring finish in Canada dates back to 2014. In contrast, Nico Hulkenberg has scored in six of his last seven Canadian GPs.
F1 StatsGuru, also known as Sundaram Ramaswami, is a motorsport statistician and digital content creator. He runs the largest stats-based community on the internet and provides statistics to leading media houses in motorsport such as The Race, Motorsport, and Autosport. His stats have been featured on global broadcasts by David Croft, Will Buxton, and others. Despite his professional background in telecom engineering, his love for statistics developed over a decade of playing cricket fantasy with friends and colleagues. He is also currently a part of the WTF1 talent roster.
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