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Writer's pictureSundaram Ramaswami

FANTASY PRIXVIEW - 2024 BAHRAIN GP

Updated: Apr 4



A new Formula 1 season is upon us, back after just 97 days since the season finale in Abu Dhabi, marking the shortest off-season in over four decades. This year, the championship expands further to 24 Grands Prix and 6 Sprints, making it the longest- ever season in

F1 history.


Max Verstappen and Red Bull are once again in prime position to break records this

year, given their outstanding form and level of excellence. However, for fans, this

season also offers a golden opportunity to shine in fantasy leagues. That’s where I come in. Having delved into F1 fantasy numerous times, I've found the format to be somewhat rigid and predictable, much like Verstappen's dominance on the track. However, various platforms now offer more dynamic and competitive gameplay options.


My pick for this season is GridMaster, for two compelling reasons -


Firstly, GridMaster's format is aimed at strategic budget management, meaning I

don't necessarily have to pick the race-winning driver every time to score the most

points. This approach opens up more scoring opportunities, even with lower-ranked

teams and drivers.


Secondly, the prizes on offer include racing memorabilia, team merchandise, and

even the possibility of attending a race. Given the increasing costs of attending races,

I’d rather apply my analytical skills here and see if I can bag the jackpot.


So, I'm gearing up to create a winning team for each race weekend and share my

strategies and insights through this blog. Stay tuned for tips and analysis to make

your fantasy journey less complex and maximize your chances of success.


Let's dive in. Here are a few key points to keep in mind -


1. You'll start by selecting two drivers and one constructor. Afterward, you'll need to

answer some prediction questions about your roster. This step could be crucial

in setting your team apart from others. So, simply choosing Max Verstappen

week in, week out won't suffice, as many others may make the same choice.

2. Unlike the F1 points system, where P1 = 25 pts, P2 = 18 pts, P3 = 15 pts, and so

on, the fantasy points system doesn't have large gaps between drivers. It's a

decrementing scale, reducing by only one point. For example, Verstappen,

costing 40 million, will give you 20 points for a race win. In comparison, Lando

Norris, costing 36 million, will give you 19 points for a second-place finish. This

small points gap for a 4-million difference in cost allows for more efficient use of

your budget, which you can allocate to other drivers or constructors.

3. While it might be tempting to select Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc, who

are obvious choices, remember that points are also awarded for overtakes and

positions gained. These two drivers were on the lower end of the overtakes table

last year. Therefore, it's wise to choose carefully. The following overtakes table

indicates that many midfield drivers cover the top half, as the pace is much

closer there. Additionally, some drivers perform better in races than in qualifying,

allowing for more overtaking opportunities.

Considering these factors, my strategy would be to select a front-running driver who

consistently scores points, along with a midfield driver who can also earn points

through overtakes. This strategy combines the best of both worlds.


Prime Picks


Max Verstappen - Verstappen dominated last season with an impressive 19 wins,

surpassing the career victories of Jenson Button (15), Felipe Massa (11), and

Rubens Barrichello (11). His current form and consistency makes him a clear choice,

especially considering Red Bull's extremely positive pre-season test. However, it's

important to note that Verstappen alone costs 40 million, while Red Bull costs 39

million. Choosing either could mean compromising on other selections. Also, both

Red Bull and Verstappen have suffered numerous DNFs in Bahrain, which could be

attributed to early-season teething problems rather than unreliability.


Ferrari - Ferrari showed promise during pre-season testing, indicating they have

addressed their problems from last year. The car is reportedly more driveable, with

inspiring long-run pace. The only concern might still be tyre degradation, as the

Bahrain International Circuit's abrasive track has never been resurfaced in its 20-year

history. Despite signs that Ferrari has improved in this area, there's still a risk it could

affect their performance, albeit minimally. With Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz,

Ferrari has a formidable lineup, and if the car performs as expected, you could see

some fireworks from them this year.


Decent Picks

McLaren, Mercedes, and Aston Martin appear to be the front-runners in the upper

midfield, each with its own strengths.


McLaren - McLaren showed significant improvement in 2023 but faced some

challenges during testing this year, particularly on days 2 and 3. While their pace

seemed behind Ferrari, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri provide a reliable lineup that

can accumulate points if the car performs well.


Mercedes - Mercedes is starting afresh with a new car philosophy, having

abandoned the zeropod concept. This puts them in a learning phase and potentially

two years behind their competitors. However, Mercedes remains one of the most

consistent teams in F1, the very reason why they managed to challenge Ferrari for

second place last year.


Aston Martin - Aston Martin may not have the same wow factor as last year but are

still solid picks. Expect Fernando Alonso to exceed expectations and secure points

and podiums whenever possible.


Punts


Critics may doubt Lance Stroll's abilities and consistency, particularly in qualifying.

However, he has a knack for gaining positions rapidly during races, making him a

worthwhile punt. The same goes for Yuki Tsunoda and Zhou Guanyu, who are likely

to come at a lower cost, helping balance your team if you opt for bigger drivers or

teams. Williams has historically performed well on tracks with straights, making this

circuit potentially suitable for them and and Alex Albon in particular.


My team - Lando Norris (36 mil) + Lance Stroll (28 mil) + Ferrari (35 mil)
Budget left - 1 mil

Alternate team - Oscar Piastri (33 mil) + Alexander Albon (28 mil) + Red Bull (39 mil)

Budget left - 0 mil


Stats and facts -

1. No driver has taken back-to-back pole positions in Bahrain in the last seven

years. Lewis Hamilton was the last one to do so in 2015-2016.

2. No driver has won in Bahrain when starting from lower than fifth on the grid, with

85% of the races in Bahrain have been won from the top-three starting positions.

3. The Bahrain GP has seen an average of 3.6 retirements in the hybrid era.

4. For the first nine years of the hybrid era, races in Bahrain saw an average of 46

overtakes per race. Last year’s race saw just 22 passes being made.

5. Out of the 31 races Verstappen has retired from, he has had 5 DNFs in Bahrain,

his highest at a single venue. This accounts for a 50% DNF rate, considering

he’s raced at this track only 10 times.

6. Verstappen has won each of the last 21 races with a fully or partially clockwise

layout. The last time he failed to win at a clockwise circuit was the Austrian GP in

July 2022, which also marked the last time he failed to win a race from pole

position.

7. The Milton-Keynes team has suffered six DNFs in their last seven races in

Bahrain, including a double DNF in 2018 and 2022.

8. Alonso has made it to the checkered flag in 15 of his 16 visits to Bahrain.

9. A Mercedes-powered car has finished in the points in each of the last 300 GPs,

a streak which started way back at the 2008 Chinese GP.

10. Mercedes has maintained a 100% scoring rate with both cars at the Bahrain GP

in 14 appearances.

11. Carlos Sainz had not scored in his first five Bahrain races, which also included

four DNFs. However, he has has since recorded a 100% scoring streak at this

track.

12. McLaren has not made it to Q3 in each of their last two Bahrain GPs.

13. Williams has not reached Q3 at the Bahrain GP since 2017 when Felipe Massa

qualified P8.

14. Alex Albon has a 100% finish rate in Bahrain and has scored in four of his five

outings here.

15. Valtteri Bottas has scored points in each of his last eleven Bahrain appearances.


F1 StatsGuru, also known as Sundaram Ramaswami, is a motorsport statistician and digital content creator. He runs the largest stats-based community on the internet and provides statistics to leading media houses in motorsport such as The Race, Motorsport, and Autosport. His stats have been featured on global broadcasts by

David Croft, Will Buxton, and others. Despite his professional background in telecom engineering, his love for statistics developed over a decade of playing cricket fantasy

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